While President Obama, the Centers for Disease Control and European Union respond to requests for help in containing Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa, discussions now move toward estimating how deadly this outbreak will become.
To date about 5,000 EVD cases have been reported with about 2,500 deaths and most scientists believe that number is underreported. Medical experts agree that containment of the disease is not working and they have begun doing the math.
“Mathematical models show worst case scenarios that vary from between 70,000 to 250,000 cases in infected areas,” Dr. Lee Norman, chief medical officer for The University of Kansas Hospital in Kansas City, Kan., said. “With the higher the number of cases in West Africa comes the greater chance of the Ebola virus spreading to the U.S. and Europe. With the Ebola reproductive rate being so high, mathematical forecasting predicts a 25 percent chance of it arriving in England and an 18 percent likelihood of reaching the U.S. by the end of September.”
Dr. Norman said doctors have identified 300 EVD mutations alone during this current outbreak. Each mutation continues to spread through direct contact with bodily fluids only with no airborne transmissions although doctors are monitoring for that closely.
“The next immediate steps will likely include the sending of more supplies and perhaps even American and-or European troops to help with ongoing civil unrest and crime related to the growing outbreak,” Dr. Norman said. “Humanitarian relief is just one part of the response that is needed now as this disease spreads fear as well as sickness.”
Education and understanding remain two keystones in the ongoing efforts to contain this outbreak, added Dr. Norman.
To see a KU Hospital video on this topic, visit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wPt43utg10
– Story from KU Hospital