Category: Election 2018

Analysis

by Celia Llopis-Jepsen, Stephan Bisaha and Jim McLean, Kansas News Service

Truth, it’s said, is the first casualty of war. That helps explain why combat metaphors so often get applied to political campaigns.

The battlefield of the Kansas governor’s race bears out the maxim. Even when candidates get their facts right — a surprisingly difficult task for the field — their words tend to twist a broader truth.

So we’ve run through some of the lines the governor hopefuls commonly trot out and tested where they get it right, and how they often tell voters something that just isn’t so.

What would be the impact of charging out-of-state tuition to immigrants who are in the country illegally but grew up in Kansas?

Only 670 students who are in the country illegally pay in-state tuition in Kansas. Hiking their rates — doubling or tripling their tuition — might improve the finances of state colleges and universities by a marginal amount.

But that price increase could have the unintended effect of driving many of those students out of school. After all, the out-of-state rate is sometimes double or triple the cost and those students are ineligible for federal student aid.

So if they left, that could drive up tuition for the people left behind.

If the vast majority of those immigrant students found a way to pay for far steeper tuition — a scenario implied with some campaign talk — it might lower the tuition for others.

But Kansas universities are eager to keep all the students they can. Even students attending public colleges and universities at discounted in-state rates generate badly needed tuition. Almost any drop in enrollment spreads campus costs among a smaller student body.

Gov. Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Kris Kobach, the leading candidates in the Republican primary, want to end in-state tuition for immigrant students in the country illegally.

A fiscal note signed by Colyer’s chief budget officer, Larry Campbell, says that charging those students the out-of-state rate would raise about $2.3 million in tuition. (In a television ad, Kobach inflates that figure to $4 million.)

That $2.3 million assumes all those students would stay enrolled.

“Some would say, well, they just won’t go, as opposed to paying the higher rate,” said Blake Flanders, president of the Kansas Board of Regents.

How pro-gun or anti-gun are the leading Democratic candidates for governor?

Former state agriculture secretary and state lawmaker Josh Svaty and state Sen. Laura Kelly both have a long history of voting for stronger gun rights in the Kansas Legislature. Their records, and campaign positions, have been more mixed recently.

But a statement about Svaty and Kelly by Carl Brewer, another Democrat in the race, is, at best, dated.

A Brewer a campaign ad says both have “A” ratings from the National Rifle Association. That was true once, but not now. Today, they each have an “F.” The NRA itself doesn’t consider those past ratings relevant, but they remain visible on Vote Smart, a non-partisan organization that tracks votes and endorsements.

Svaty got an “A” rating in 2004, 2006 and 2008. Kelly got an “A” in 2008.

Svaty has attacked Kelly’s sponsorship of the 2015 constitutional carry law, under which Kansans who want to pack a hidden weapon no longer need a concealed carry permit.

“We should have stopped this when we had the chance (in) 2015,” Svaty said, “and we needed Democrats that knew that then and knew enough to stand up say no.”

Svaty was not in the Legislature in 2015.

Kelly has expressed regret over the law. “It became very clear that we went too far,” she said at a debate in Wichita.

She has more recently voted to curtail gun rights, including a vote this year against a bill that would have allowed 18-to-20-year-olds to conceal and carry a weapon without a permit.

When Svaty was in the Legislature, he cast the same votes as Kelly to expand gun rights, including one law that restricted how much local governments could regulate firearms.

Who’s paying for new school buildings?

Kobach recently described some administrative buildings as “Taj Mahals.” He called out Shawnee Mission in particular:

“There’s one in Shawnee Mission, people call it the ‘Crystal Palace.’ I think it was $24 million. It looks like a corporate headquarters. I have no idea what those people are doing in there. They’re probably on their phones playing games.”

It turns out Kobach low-balled the expense — that building actually cost $32.5 million — even as he mischaracterized what’s happening inside. It holds more than administrators. About half of it is used for career programs such as bio-technology and engineering.

But his statement also seems to imply that state money was used — taxes collected in Emporia or Dodge City or Salina. The dollars all came from local property taxes, because Shawnee Mission is wealthy enough that it doesn’t qualify for matching state aid for its construction. But less wealthy districts do, and the state is spending more on that year by year.

Is the number of school administrators growing faster than the number of classroom instructors?

Administrative and teaching jobs have both climbed in recent years, but just how much depends on how you count.

Kobach describes a trend that doesn’t appear to match with any accounting we could find.

“Over the past 20 years, I’ll try to remember the numbers exactly. I think the number of teachers in the state has increased 16 percent. The number of administrators, 38 percent.”

We don’t know how Kobach is defining “teachers” and “administrators.” His campaign hasn’t answered repeated requests about the claim and about his source on these figures.

The Kansas News Service attempted a few calculations using personnel breakdowns from the state education department.

The number of teachers is up 11 percent (we excluded librarians, counselors, teachers aides and others who work with children in schools) over the last two decades.

The number of administrators jumped 25 percent — if we count district and school building leaders and all district “manager” or “director” positions. There are fewer superintendents and principals today because schools and districts keep closing and consolidating. But the number of directors, coordinators and supervisors for things such as food service, maintenance and instruction has mushroomed. Twenty years ago “technology director” wasn’t even listed in schools data, for obvious reasons. Today there are 250.

Because Kobach has made repeated campaign statements about spending outside the classroom being excessive, we also tried slicing the data a different way: The change in classroom personnel versus non-classroom personnel. Classroom personnel (we included teachers, teacher aides and special education aides) rose 19 percent. Non-classroom personnel (everyone else) increased 12 percent.

Over the past 20 years, student enrollment rose 4 percent.

Has KanCare, the state’s privatized Medicaid program, saved money and improved health care?

At best, we’ve got more opinion on the matter than hard data.

As lieutenant governor to Brownback, Colyer spearheaded the administration’s controversial 2013 overhaul of Medicaid.

Not surprisingly, then, the Johnson County plastic surgeon touts the program as something that cut costs and improved the quality of care.

At a June candidate forum in Parsons, Colyer said privatization had saved $2 billion over five years.

“That’s what we saved Kansas taxpayers by reforming Medicaid, according to an independent study,” he said.

The 2017 study, paid for by the companies that manage KanCare, said privatization had reduced the projected growth of Medicaid costs by $1.7 billion. So, the governor rounded up $300 million.

But a report released several months later by state auditors called that and other claims into question. It said that incomplete data obscured the extent to which KanCare had lowered costs and improved the quality of care provided to the more than 400,000 Kansans covered by the program.

“These data issues limited our ability to conclude with certainty on KanCare’s effect on service use and limited our ability to interpret cost trends,” the auditors wrote. “More significantly, data reliability issues entirely prevented us from evaluating KanCare’s effect on beneficiaries’ health outcomes.”

State officials charged with overseeing KanCare disputed some of the auditors’ conclusions but acknowledged the need to improve the data on costs and patient outcomes.

Celia Llopis-Jepsen is a reporter for the Kansas News Service. You can reach her on Twitter @Celia_LJ.
Jim McLean is managing director of the Kansas News Service. You can reach him on Twitter @jmcleanks.
Stephan Bisaha reports on education for KMUW in Wichita and the Kansas News Service. Follow him on @SteveBisaha.
Kansas News Service stories and photos may be republished at no cost with proper attribution and a link back to the original post.
See more at http://www.kcur.org/post/aligning-what-kansas-candidates-governor-say-facts.

by Stephen Koranda, Kansas News Service

It helps, the latest Kansas campaign money tallies show, to be rich or have wealthy friends.

Next best thing, run as an incumbent.

Campaign finance reports for the first half of this year show dollars spent nearly as quickly as candidates could corral them — filling airwaves, plastering billboards and stuffing mailboxes with flyers.

Several candidates for governor in the first election since Sam Brownback left the office earlier this year find themselves nearing next Tuesday’s primary on a path to burn through nearly all they’ve raised.

Fund thyself

Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach led the candidates for governor in money raised from Jan. 1 to July 26 with $1.7 million. Nearly all of it, $1.5 million, came from his running mate, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman. Most of that came as loans.

In fact, University of Kansas political scientist Patrick Miller said, about 55 percent of the cash raised by all the contenders in the governor’s race came from the candidates themselves.

“Which is extraordinary and bizarre for a governor’s race,” Miller said.

Although wealthier candidates historically often fund much of their own campaigns, Miller said it is far more rare for the No. 2 candidate on a ticket to pick up the tab.

“I’ve never seen a gubernatorial campaign like that anywhere, ever,” Miller said.

The influx of cash has given Kobach the ability to spend more during the period on campaign costs such as advertising. A single ad buy on July 13 rang in at $533,000.

“As a businessman,” Hartman told the Associated Press in a statement, “I know how important it is to invest in great leadership. And as a conservative, I know how critical investment is to the cause.”

Republican former state Sen. Jim Barnett, a physician, previously loaned his campaign more than $500,000. Self-described “entrepreneurial evangelist” Patrick Kucera’s fundraising was almost entirely made up of more than $300,000 from himself. Republican Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer and former Democratic Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer have also put their own money into their campaigns for governor.

Independent candidate Greg Orman dropped more than $650,000 on his race.

Incumbent Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer raised the most from donors who aren’t also candidates. His report showed $834,000 during the latest filing period. Colyer made headlines for loans extended at critical points in the 2014 campaign, when he was lieutenant governor and then-Gov. Brownback was running for reelection.

There were no candidate loans in Colyer’s latest fundraising totals.

“I am humbled that our message of strong, optimistic, competent conservative leadership has resonated so well with Kansans,” Colyer said in a statement.

Colyer has also been pouring money into large advertising buys in advance of the primary.

On the Democratic side, state Sen. Laura Kelly led in fundraising with $573,000.

“I’m honored to have the support of such a broad and diverse group of Kansans,” Kelly said in a statement.

Former Kansas Agriculture Secretary Josh Svaty raised $213,000 and Brewer brought in $81,000.

“Nothing about the reports surprise us,” a Svaty campaign spokesman, Mike Swenson, said. “We have known all along that we would not raise as much money as the Kelly-Rogers campaign. They are both sitting state senators in the middle of their term.”

Easy come, easy go

The reports suggest several campaigns aren’t stockpiling for a general election.

Kobach on the GOP side, along with Brewer and Svaty on the Democratic side, all have used most of their money. Kobach had $59,000 left in his war chest. Svaty maintained $35,000 and Brewer had just $13,000.

That compares to Colyer with $175,000 and Kelly with $236,000.

“I am a little bit surprised by the number of candidates who have basically spent themselves into being broke,” Miller said.

PACs just getting started

Political action committees have started lining up behind some of the candidates for governor.

Colyer has garnered the support of more than two dozen organizations. He received donations of up to $2,000 from groups spanning a wide range of sectors.

The donors range from the Kansas Livestock Association, health care and pharmaceutical PACS to the Kansas Beer Wholesalers advocacy group.

Selzer got money from two insurance PACs and the Livestock Association.

On the Democratic side, Kelly had the support of a dozen PACs, including some that supported Colyer. Kelly also attracted PAC support from unions and transportation workers, as well as the Kansas Livestock Association.

The Kansas Livestock Association also donated to Svaty’s campaign.

Other groups are also starting to show up in the 2018 campaign, some of which are not constrained by the same spending limits as PACs. One is working on behalf of Orman by criticizing Kelly and Colyer, according to a story by the Wichita Eagle. That could reflect a calculation that the independent’s chances would be better in a three-way race with Kobach and Svaty.

Miller expects fundraising, and PAC activity, to pick up following the primary.

“Most of the money in this campaign,” he said, “is probably ahead of us, not behind.”

Out-of-state money

Money has poured into the Kansas races from across the country. Orman and a former Google executive running for secretary of state both have seen considerable out-of-state donations.

For Orman, some of that money came from Minnesota, where he was raised.

Democratic secretary of state candidate Brian McClendon pulled in contributions from Silicon Valley.

“Certainly, McClendon having lived in California and worked there, has a lot of connections,” Miller said.

McClendon raised $509,000, although $150,000 came from himself.

McClendon far outraised the best-funded Republican candidate for secretary of state, House Speaker Pro Tem Scott Schwab, who gathered $65,000, including $25,000 of his own money.

Democrats have not performed well in statewide races in recent years and have failed to win elections for offices such as attorney general, insurance commissioner or secretary of state.

“It’s one of the few times recently,” Miller said, “where we’ve seen a Democrat in a down-ballot race actually raise real money.”

Stephen Koranda is Statehouse reporter for Kansas Public Radio, a partner in the Kansas News Service. Follow him on Twitter @kprkoranda.
Kansas News Service stories and photos may be republished at no cost with proper attribution and a link back to the original post.
See more at http://www.kcur.org/post/money-pouring-and-out-kansas-campaigns-candidates-donors-and-pacs